WARUM DER WELTRAUMKRIEG SCHON BALD REALITÄT SEIN KÖNNTE.- Ein Beitrag von Sandra Erwin im US-Fachmedium SpaceNews

WASHINGTON — Experts have warned for some time that wars in space are not just Hollywood fiction. And the scenario appears increasingly more likely, according to the latest analysis by the U.S. intelligence community.

“We assess that, if a future conflict were to occur involving Russia or China, either country would justify attacks against U.S. and allied satellites as necessary to offset any perceived U.S. military advantage derived from military, civil or commercial space systems,” warns the 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, released this week by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

The United States has benefitted from a tidal wave of innovation in the space industry, but so have many other nations. “Foreign countries — particularly China and Russia — will continue to expand their space-based reconnaissance, communications, and navigation systems in terms of the numbers of satellites, the breadth of their capability, and the applications for use,” said the report.

Both Russia and China continue to pursue anti-satellite weapons knowing that, if successfully employed, could undermine U.S. military capabilities, analysts noted. “Russia and China aim to have nondestructive and destructive counter-space weapons available for use during a potential future conflict.”

U.S. intelligence predicts that “destructive” Russian and Chinese anti-satellite weapons probably will reach “initial operational capability in the next few years.” China’s military is setting up specialized units and has begun “initial operational training with counter-space capabilities that it has been developing, such as ground-launched anti-satellite missiles.”

The intelligence community believes Russia probably has a similar class of weapons in development. Both countries also are advancing directed-energy weapons that could make satellites useless by blinding sensitive optical sensors such as those used for remote sensing or missile defense.

Another concern is Russia and China launching “experimental” satellites for on-orbit activities that are not necessarily hostile but could help them advance their counter-space capabilities, the report said. “Some technologies with peaceful applications — such as satellite inspection, refueling and repair — can also be used against adversary spacecraft.”

The report criticized both Russia and China for “continuing their pursuit of space warfare capabilities while publicly maintaining that space must be a peaceful domain.”

Independent analysts historically have been a bit more skeptical of these intelligence reports, but the latest DNI assessment appears to provide stronger evidence that threats to U.S. satellites are real.

Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation, has been researching China’s space weapons for years. Its arsenal includes ground-based direct ascent missiles that can physically destroy a satellite, jammers that can interfere, and lasers that can be used to dazzle or perhaps even blind imaging satellites, he told SpaceNews.